UFC 304 Preview

A look over the key fights of the England PPV

The UFC returns to England with a strong PPV offering, albeit in the early morning hours. The last UFC PPV in England was UFC 286, which took place at a time amenable to British fans. UFC 304, however, falls in line with UFC 204, the last Manchester card. I suspect UFC 286’s fan-friendly timing was a goodwill gesture after the pandemic, but now it’s back to business as usual. The UFC can make more revenue selling a prime-time PPV than it can with a UK-friendly time slot.

While the decision has clear practical merits, it comes at the expense of growing the sport in the UK; 11 pm start times do not appease the casual audience. However, the UFC appears content with the sport as it is. As a fan attending UFC 304, I have voided my right to complain about the start, and in truth, I am very excited about an MMA all-nighter.

Despite the timing challenges, the card itself offers some intriguing matchups. The card is headlined by two rematches featuring British champions in title fights. Yet, the circumstances surrounding both fights somewhat diminish their appeal. Leon vs Belal II is a necessary rematch to push the division forward. Still, it compels neither the promotion nor the fans, especially while Shavkat looms over the division. Tom Aspinall’s career has become embroiled in the last act of Jon Jones, and a rematch with Curtis Blaydes is intriguing, but it lacks the spectacle of Aspinall facing Jones.

The rest of the card features several great fights showcasing prominent British fighters: Fan Favourite Paddy Pimblett, undefeated flyweight prospect Muhammad Mokaev and featherweight contender Arnold Allen, each looking to climb higher in their respective divisions.

Edwards vs Belal II - The Necessary Fight

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad II is necessary for the welterweight division. Belal has not lost a fight since 2019 and is riding a 10-fight unbeaten streak. While it makes sense within the division, it has not generated much fanfare.

Belal’s run to a title shot has been remarkable insofar as I did not expect him to reach this point. He is a fighter who lacks dynamism but has a keen eye for the sport and an aptitude for developing the correct game plan for a given matchup. Making Belal an intelligent fighter but, by and large, a very dull one to watch. Belal often forces his opponents to fight in the areas where they are weakest. Even with an advantage, he usually seems content to secure a win rather than make a statement. This approach has created resistance within the promotion. The UFC does not want Belal in a title fight, but at a certain point, his consistent success makes him undeniable.

Leon’s career was in a similar predicament for a long time. His game is more exciting, playing off his southpaw range kicking, elite clinch work, and highly credible grappling that developed throughout his run. Leon has an arsenal of techniques, but often, he does not press these advantages meaningfully. For this reason, Leon was frequently placed on the outside of title discussions in favour of fighters like Darren Till, who, despite being less skilled, could appeal to a wider audience. Unlike Belal, Leon does have the ability to pull out genuinely sublime moments in the cage. His comeback KO of then P4P #1 Kamaru Usman was incredibly cinematic, earning him the belt and helping shed his persona as a boring fighter.

This fight is a rematch of an anticlimactic encounter in 2021, ending via an eye poke early into the 2nd round. Belal’s last loss in 2019 was against a southpaw kicker in Geoff Neal, and it appeared he ran into similar problems with Leon, getting badly hurt early. Yet Belal survived, and it was only one round; Leon often gives away the initiative in his fights. Furthermore, the fight was on short notice, which impedes a fighter like Belal, who relies so much on his preparation.

Since their first meeting, Leon had a bizarre booking with Nate Diaz in which he got rocked late in the fight, and then he pulled off one of the greatest comebacks of all time to become world champion against Usman. He has gone on to defend the belt twice vs Usman & Colby Covington. Despite controversy over fouls, the third fight with Usman was a much more impressive outing than his most recent fight with Covington. Leon was much more assertive vs Usman, whereas, against Colby, he fell into the point-fighter habits of old, winning clearly but unimpressively.

On the other hand, Belal has put together a 5-fight streak over some declining names such as Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia. He also avenged his loss to Vicente Luque in an impressive showing and finished the previously undefeated Sean Brady. He recently defeated Gilbert Burns on late notice to earn his title shot. While he has come much further than I anticipated and has approached each fight intelligently, there isn’t one performance that makes me envision Belal as a champion. His victories, while consistent, lack the dominant or spectacular moments that typically define championship-level fighters.

As for the rematch, I predict Leon Edwards will retain his title. His technical striking advantage, particularly his ability to control range with his southpaw stance, poses significant problems for Belal. Leon’s improved takedown defence and clinch work should allow him to keep the fight where he’s most comfortable. I expect Belal to bring a smart approach to this match-up. Which I suspect will involve constantly pressuring Leon and mixing in the wrestling. Fundamentally, I think this is a bad match-up for Belal; even with the best approach, the physical disadvantage will make it harder to win even exchanges. Given Leon’s tepid demeanour and style, I expect him to win a clear, uneventful decision.

Aspinall vs Blayes II - A Division in Turmoil

The UFC Heavyweight Division is in a state of turmoil. It all started in 2022 when the UFC stripped Francis Ngannou after failed contract negotiations. For the first time since 2013, the UFC did not possess the lineal heavyweight MMA champion.

Despite losing Francis, the UFC still had the box office appeal of Jon Jones moving up to Heavyweight. Jones faced off with Ciryl Gane, who had recently lost to Francis. Jon made embarrassingly quick work of Gane and campaigned for a fight with Stipe Miocic. In 2017, this would have been a banger fight, but in 2023, it seemed more like legacy padding, a cynical ploy to inflate a resume. This fight was booked for UFC 295 in November 2023, but Jon got injured, necessitating an interim title fight.

This interim bout was between Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich, a clash between surging young heavyweights. Aspinall won via KO early in the first and established himself as the Next-Gen Heavyweight. However, Jon still wanted to fight Miocic, who had not fought since he was KOed by Ngannou in 2021. This decision by Jones undermines the legitimacy of the title. He has not beaten the lineal champion and is unwilling to fight the interim champion. The division is waiting for Jon to retire, which he ultimately will after finally beating Stipe.

In the meantime, Aspinall will defend his interim title in a rematch with Curtis Blaydes to keep the division moving. Given the nature of their first fight, which lasted only 15 seconds due to Aspinall’s knee injury, this is more like an initial booking than a true rematch.

Tom Aspinall has all the makings of an elite heavyweight: great physical gifts, dangerous straight punches, effective work from the clinch, and high-level grappling. The issue is that he so often overwhelms his opponents so quickly that we seldom see the depth of his game and how much lies beneath the surface.

Blaydes has been KO’d early, but his wrestling is not to be underestimated. He is a much more proven figure than Aspinall. He can make this a tough fight if he can survive the early barrage. Ultimately, I think the speed of Aspinall will allow him to land on Blaydes and get him out of there early. Hoping that we get to see a dynamic play out in the fight rather than one-way traffic.

Pimblett vs Green - Paddy’s Ranked Test

Paddy Pimblett, riding a six-fight winning streak in the UFC Lightweight Division, is finally facing ranked opposition. Pimblett’s ascent has been carefully orchestrated, going through the dregs of the Lightweight Division. Comparing his career trajectory with that of someone like Elves Brenner reveals a stark difference in the level of competition he has faced. The UFC’s approach to Pimblett’s career has been more cautious, focusing on building his brand and fanbase rather than testing him against top-tier talent. Even with this level of competition, he has not separated himself meaningfully from his opponents.

This fight against Bobby Green follows a similar pattern of calculated matchmaking. Green, a 37-year-old veteran coming off a win, presents a beatable yet credible challenge. He was recently KOed in late 2023 by Jalin Turner, which suggests vulnerability. However, Green’s experience and skill set make this a significant step up in competition for Pimblett.

Despite the UFC’s efforts to cushion Pimblett’s rise, this fight marks the end of that protective strategy. While Green has been out-grappled before, I don’t think Paddy has the grappling to challenge him there. He’s been knocked out by Drew Dober, who hits harder than Pimblett, and Jalin Turner, a more accurate and dangerous striker. Pimblett’s tendency to keep his head upright in his striking defence will allow Green to win rounds on the feet. Paddy is not at the level of the fighters Green has lost to.

Pimblett’s toughness is undeniable, but he may lack the technical craft necessary to trouble Green over three rounds consistently. Green’s experience, striking acumen, and defensive grappling should be enough to control the fight. However, given Pimblett’s durability, this about will likely go the distance.

Kape vs Mokaev - A Potetnial Title Eliminator

Outside of the co-main event, the Flyweight match between Muhammad Mokaev and Manel Kape is arguably the most intriguing on the card. Given the relatively thin nature of the Flyweight Division, this could potentially set either fighter up for a title shot, particularly Mokaev. Kape, despite his potential, has struggled with fight availability, which has hindered his progress in the division.

Mokaev boasts a superb amateur career and has performed impressively in the UFC thus far. However, his style has raised some concerns. His wins predominantly come through submission grappling, resembling a pure grappling match rather than MMA. Notably, he rarely incorporates ground and pound into his arsenal. When unable to secure a submission, his fights can become tedious, lacking excitement.

Kape’s UFC journey has been a tale of two halves. He struggled with activity in his early UFC run, dropping his first two fights. Since then, he has returned with a more aggressive approach, showcasing the potential that made him a highly touted fighter. However, his tendency to withdraw from scheduled bouts has cost him momentum and opportunities in the division.

Kape undoubtedly possesses the tools to win this fight. He’s physically more impressive and has shown flashes of brilliance in his recent performances. However, Mokaev’s wrestling threat will likely make Kape second-guess his attacks, potentially preventing him from settling into his striking. It’s worth noting that Kape has been out-grappled many times before, notably by Kyoji Horiguchi in Rizin. While his training at American Top Team has likely improved his grappling defence, Mokaev’s wrestling pedigree presents a significant challenge.

This fight will likely go the distance, resulting in a close and potentially frustrating decision for Mokaev. Whose ability to control positions and threaten submissions, even without inflicting significant damage, may be enough to sway the judges.

Mokaev is running a thin line with his lack of tangible offence, and it will come back to punish him at some point. Even with these flaws, he still has a drive and focus to win, making him a difficult fight for anyone.

Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze

Arnold Allen long protected his reputation through inactivity. He was a well-rounded fighter with the potential, but he has not put together a consistent streak to warrant title contention. However, recent fights against the division’s elite have exposed his limitations. While he has shown skills against top-tier opponents like Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev, he has come up short in both instances, revealing that he may not quite have the quality to compete at the highest level of the division.

Similarly, Giga Chikadze has been plagued by inactivity and finds himself at a comparable career crossroads. Known for his striking prowess, particularly his devastating “Giga Kick,” Chikadze needs a statement win to reestablish himself as a contender.

For both fighters, this represents a crucial juncture. They stand at the crossroads between title contention and potentially settling into the role of perennial mid-tier featherweights. A win here could reignite their path towards the top while losing might relegate them to gatekeeper status.

Allen’s more well-rounded MMA game gives him a significant advantage in this matchup. While Chikadze possesses formidable striking, he tends to rely too heavily on his signature “Giga Kick” - a southpaw kick from the open stance. This predictability could be his undoing against a versatile fighter like Allen.

Allen must employ a mixed strategy, blending striking with wrestling to keep Chikadze off-balance. His ability to threaten in multiple phases of the fight should allow him to control the pace and direction of the attack. I would especially like to see him pursue the grappling as this is where Giga is weakest. For that reason, I think Allen will pick up a decision win.

Conclusion

I will be attending UFC 304; despite the burden of staying up through the night, I am very hyped for this card. Aspinall is the fighter I am most looking forward to seeing and Mokaev vs Kape is the fight I am most interested in.

Aiming to return to a more consistent writing schedule.

All the Best, Ocelot.