Rafael Fiziev vs Mateusz Gamrot
Battle of Lightweights & The Next Generation
Rafael Fiziev #6 vs Mateusz Gamrot #7 is another compelling match in the UFC's stacked Lightweight Division. Unlike the frustratingly stagnant welterweight division, we have a ranked contenders fight.
Both Fiziev & Gamrot were described as the Next Generation at 155
A group which, on the whole, has been relatively unsuccessful.
I will give my thoughts on this grouping & what we can learn from it.
Finally, I will share my insight regarding the upcoming Fiziev vs. Gamrot.
Next Generation of Lightweights
This week, I posted about the Next Generation of Lightweights. Many who replied were unfamiliar with the term or needed to know what I was referring to.
It likely resides in the niche of hardcore MMA fans & nowhere else.
Khabib Nurmagomedov left an indelible mark on the Lightweight Division. What had once been a division of chaos & turnover became markedly predictable. A trend that Islam Makhachev has seamlessly inherited.
The assumption was that a generation of fighters would rise and would be able to deal with the wrestling game which Khabib brought into the Octagon. Similar to how wrestle-boxers had arisen to combat the early dominance of a wrestler in MMA.
Thus enters the next generation of technically proficient fighters in all areas of MMA who are certainly from Eastern Europe. I will now cover those included in this denomination and how they have panned out to the present date.
*I will discuss Fiziev & Gamrot in the section on the upcoming fight
Damir Ismagulov was the darling of MMA Hipsters, with a seemingly complete stand-up game operating behind an educated jab and the ability to mix in takedowns.
There was much Damir could do, and all he did well. However, Damir at no point captured the broader imagination of the MMA fan base despite riding a five-fight win streak. He lacked the offensive potency to make a mark on an action-packed division such as Lightweight as all his wins went the distance.
His undoing came against Arman Tsarukyan & Grant Dawson, in which he was compressively out-grappled. The Dawson fight was an especially humiliating affair. Damir seems to flirt with retirement after such losses, only to jump back into competition. Given this & his recent performances, I struggle to see him ascending further in the UFC.
Guram Kutateladze is a training partner of the feared Khamzat Chimaev; he made an immediate splash by defeating the vaunted Mateusz Gamrot on short notice.
Showed an elite level of takedown defence combined with a ferocious kicking arsenal.
However, training with Khamzat, I can only imagine, is very intense. Sadly, it appears to have destroyed his body. His inability to make it to fights became a running joke.
He was recently TKOed by Elves Brener, one of the many Charles Oliviera clones currently roaming the UFC. It was a wild back-and-forth fight, but one Guram should have won, given the Damage he inflicted. To my eye, he lacked the sharpness of a fighter competing regularly. It is a shame, as Guram has much potential that has become unrealized due to injuries.
Arman Tsarukyan has the most potential of all the fighters mentioned, which comes down to age—making his debut at 22 years old & giving Islam Makhachev a competitive fight. Given Islam's pedigree & subsequent run to the title, this performance has become all the more impressive.
Since this fight, Arman has lived up to his billing, going 7-1 since 2019.
The only loss came controversially to Gamrot in a high-octane bout.
While Arman's striking is still unrefined & his coronation as champion seems far from inevitable in a division as competitive as 155.
I remain high on Arman's prospects at the division's apex.
In summary, picking MMA prospects is complex; matchmaking circumstances can shut out a functional fighter while enabling a dysfunctional fighter.
The grouping of Next-Generation Lightweights may have been foolish, given their ages & styles. It drives home the point that in the Premier Division of the UFC, you can be an exceptional fighter and still be far from title aspirations.
Eventually, we will see someone rise to answer the puzzle posed by Khabib & Islam, but for now, the answer as to whom remains unclear.
Fiziev vs Gamrot
Both fighters have recently been halted in title eliminators. Fiziev has his shot vs. Justin Gaethje at UFC 286; despite putting on one of the year's best fights, he came up short on the judges' scorecards. In contrast, Gamrot was thwarted at UFC 280 against Beneil Dariush. Unable to secure top control & outstruck on the feet. Gamrot recently returned to the win column in a short-notice win vs. Jalin Turner at UFC 285.
Rafael Fiziev
https://x.com/Ocelot_MMA/status/1704158852982226994?s=20
Of these stumbles near the top of the division, Fiziev has more positives to take. While not an optical case, a sound argument can be made that he defeated Justin Gaethje at UFC 286. He might have had a firmer grasp of victory if he had not gassed himself out in the later stages.
This problem occurred in prior fights with RDA & Bobby Green. He threw with such intent that he would inevitably gas in the later rounds. If Fiziev can make the mental shift to throw his shots with less venom to preserve his stamina, it could drastically improve his viability as an elite-level fighter who could challenge for the belt someday.
The fight with RDA will mirror the dynamic vs Gamrot in which Fiziev must defend an onslaught of takedowns. In that bout, he faded away in the 4th before finding a sublime KO in the 5th round.
This again outlines how critical it is for Fiziev to manage his stamina. He may not be able to find a decisive end in Round 5 like he did vs. RDA. Gamrot is always trying to win the fight & Fiziev cannot afford to throw away later rounds in what will likely be a close fight over five rounds.
Mateusz Gamrot
https://x.com/Ocelot_MMA/status/1704176976108347524?s=20
Gamrot, on the other hand, has more existential questions to ask about his game & its efficacy, given his recent performances. This comes down to 2 main issues.
1. Inability to decisively win rounds. Against Arman & Turner, cries of robbery abound. The pace of grappling of Gamrot and his inability to secure control means the margins are very fine when he wins rounds. His striking leads to his wrestling, yet it does not lead to control time. Gamrots works exceptionally hard in his fights, but this does not result in a decided advantage over his opponents.
2. Taking Damage. Against Dariush & Turner, he absorbed some heavy shots & ignored them. Gamrot is an incredibly durable fighter, but this can only last so long. RDA is hard to finish even at 37 & Fiziev found a way. Fiziev throws beautiful kicks and can throw decisive combinations. It would not surprise me if he were the one to crack Gamrot’s chin.
Below are the highlights of the Dariush fight, which contains beautiful scrambles and Gamrot eating a massive shot.
I was going into this fight leaning towards Gamrot. I am a massive fan of his grappling acumen. Still, scant in-cage evidence suggests this translates into his fights vs. elite competitions at Lightweight.
I am still unsure how he is going to win rounds & betting on Fiz becoming gassed later on does not mean he wins the fight when Fiziev could already be up 3-0.
But Gamrot does have a way of charming the judges; we shall see how much further this can carry him. I am confident that there will be some scoring debates post-fight.
Pick - Fiziev by Decision
Thank you for reading.
I am hoping to stay consistent & build this newsletter.
Kind Regards, Ocelot.